Airbus services forecast figures released on October 14, 2026, project that the global commercial aviation support market will exceed $420 billion in annual demand by 2045, roughly twice its 2026 size.
The manufacturer’s Global Services Forecast 2026–2045 anticipates a compound annual growth rate of 3.8% and a worldwide aircraft fleet of about 45,550 by the end of the period.
The estimate spans aircraft maintenance, engineering support, digital systems, modifications and training. It is a forecast of future industry demand, not revenue already earned or a guarantee of future contracts.
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Airbus Sees Services Demand Exceeding $420 Billion
Airbus expects annual passenger numbers to double to approximately 10 billion by 2045. The company links that expansion to a commercial fleet forecast of 45,550 aircraft, which would increase the number of airplanes requiring maintenance, spare parts and other support.
The Airbus services forecast also estimates a cumulative need for 730,000 additional maintenance technicians, 660,000 pilots and 1.05 million cabin crew over two decades. Those figures describe long-term workforce requirements, not vacancies that exist today.
The Airbus services forecast is aircraft-agnostic: it covers passenger jets with more than 100 seats and freighters capable of carrying more than 10 tonnes. It therefore describes a broader industry market, rather than services sold only to Airbus operators.
Airbus expects Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States, North America and China to remain the largest markets by total demand. It identifies Asian markets as the fastest-growing group, although demand will not rise at the same pace everywhere.
Maintenance and Training Drive the Projected Growth
Off-wing maintenance is the largest category in the forecast at $217 billion annually by 2045. Airbus associates that demand with a larger, aging fleet, more shop visits and the continuing need for repair materials and replacement parts.
Maintenance operations support accounts for another projected $104 billion. This newly defined category includes timely inventory provision and engineering support intended to help operators maintain aircraft reliability and airworthiness.
On-wing maintenance is forecast at $36 billion. It covers work performed on aircraft from lighter inspections through heavier checks. The amount of work required will still depend on aircraft age, utilization, maintenance schedules and technology.
Digital and connectivity services are projected to reach $27 billion, growing 5.3% annually—the fastest rate among the six categories. Airbus expects digital tools to support more responsive maintenance planning, operational efficiency and connectivity.
The remaining categories are modifications and upgrades at $21 billion, and training at $17 billion. Together, the six estimates total about $422 billion; Airbus rounds its overall forecast to more than $420 billion. These are annual market-size projections for 2045, not cumulative sales through that year.
Why Airbus Forecast Figures Are Not Guaranteed
Growing fleets and passenger traffic can increase service demand, but they do not guarantee equal growth for every maintenance provider. More reliable equipment, different shop-visit intervals and improvements in repair techniques could redistribute spending across the market.
The outlook also depends on assumptions about airline demand, investment, supply chains and the availability of skilled workers. If these conditions change, actual maintenance activity and workforce needs may depart from Airbus’s scenario.
Airbus is both a manufacturer and a supplier of aviation services, giving the company a commercial interest in the market it analyzes. Its forecast is useful industry research, but should not be mistaken for independently audited future revenue or firm contracts.
For airlines, repair shops and training organizations, the Airbus services forecast raises a practical question: how to plan capacity without treating a 2045 projection as certain. Future editions of the forecast and observed industry results will help show whether demand follows the predicted path.
FAQ: Airbus services forecast
What market size does Airbus forecast?
The Airbus services forecast projects annual commercial aviation services demand of more than $420 billion by 2045.
How many additional technicians may be needed?
Airbus estimates a cumulative requirement for 730,000 additional maintenance technicians over the 2026–2045 forecast horizon.
Are these confirmed market results?
No. They are manufacturer projections based on assumptions about fleet growth, passenger traffic, technology and industry activity.
Looking Ahead
Airlines, training providers and maintenance businesses will be watching whether fleet growth, staffing and service demand keep pace with the forecast. Future Airbus updates and actual market activity will provide more reliable evidence than the headline figure alone.
Sources
- Airbus — Global Services Forecast 2026–2045 release
- Airbus — Global Market Forecast 2026–2045
- Reuters — Airbus forecasts aviation services hiring requirements (October 14, 2026)
